Despite technical indicators showing that gold is overbought, its strong performance last week was beyond expectations, further boosting market confidence. A number of analysts believe that the rise in gold prices seems "unstoppable".
Last week, despite the strong US economic data and the strengthening of the US dollar, gold prices rose against the trend. This week, the bullish sentiment in the market continues.
The opening price of spot gold last week was approximately $3,688 per ounce (about S$4,765), and it closed at $3,760 on Friday (September 26th), soaring 2.03% for the whole week.
Since the beginning of this year, the gold price has increased by 43%. Compared with last year's low point, it has increased by more than 90%.
Although the technical indicators show that gold is overbought, the strong performance last week was unexpected and further boosted market confidence. Many analysts believe that the rise of gold seems "unstoppable".
Rich Checkan, President and COO of Asset Strategies International, expects the gold price to rise this week. "Although some people have started to think that gold is overvalued, the trend still shows an upward trend. Central banks around the world have not slowed down their buying pace... Retail investors are gradually entering the market."
He also mentioned that the possible shutdown of the US government will also push the gold price higher.
On September 19th, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives narrowly passed a temporary funding bill drafted by the Republicans, attempting to maintain the operation of the federal government until late November. However, this bill was rejected by the Senate in the afternoon of the same day, increasing the risk of some federal government agencies shutting down due to the exhaustion of funds.
Kitco's gold survey shows that among the 19 analysts surveyed, 16 are bullish, 3 expect a sideways trend, and none are bearish.
Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, believes that the continuous weakening of the US dollar as the world's major reserve asset is the most important factor driving the gold price, and this trend continues. "We may soon see a breakthrough."
Kevin Grady, President of Phoenix Futures and Options, said that the current market's interest rate cut expectations are still clearly favorable for gold.
Geopolitics plays a supporting role. Poland was the largest buyer of gold last year.
He also pointed out that geopolitics still plays a supporting role in the precious metals market. Poland was the largest buyer of gold last year. "They (referring to central banks) are trying to diversify their assets, which is a national security issue. These people are not trading, not thinking about how much it will rise, but rather shifting their reserves to stable assets. The result is very obvious, the gold price has reached a new all-time high."
Adam Button, Head of Currency Strategy at Forexlive.com, pointed out that many US economic data performed strongly this week, including new home sales, gross domestic product (GDP), and durable goods orders. The US dollar also rose about 1% this week. 按理说,these news should be unfavorable for gold. However, gold still rose against the trend.
He said, "The message from the gold market this week is that it doesn't need a weak US dollar or a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve to maintain the rise in the gold price."
In terms of investment strategy, Button suggests adopting a "barbell strategy", that is, holding both technology stocks and gold simultaneously. Technology stocks have a strong upward trend and are expected to obtain high returns. Gold, on the other hand, serves as a hedging asset and can hedge against risks if the market experiences volatility.
The market focuses on the non-farm payrolls report this week.
The focus of the market this week will be on the US September non-farm payrolls report to be released on Friday (October 3rd). This data will show whether the recent weakness in the job market continues and may provide an important reference for whether the Federal Reserve will take further interest rate cut measures.
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