U.S. Soybean Farmers Still Cling to Hope for Chinese Orders; Milei’s Argentine Government, Touted as Trump’s "Ally," Suddenly Axes Soybean Export Tariffs to Grab Market Share
Amid this, the Trump administration is even planning to step in to bail out Argentina’s financial market, and a sense of resentment over this "backstabbing" is growing in the United States.
Last week, during the United Nations General Assembly in New York, a scene was captured: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen received a private text message, the content of which was a complaint about Argentina’s move to lower export tariffs. This photo has since spread across major Argentine media outlets.
According to a September 26 report by Argentina’s leading newspaper La Nación, the text message included a link to a tweet by U.S. grain trader Ben Shore, along with a note: "Just a heads-up, I’m still gathering more information, but the situation is really unfortunate. Yesterday we bailed out Argentina, and now they’ve eliminated grain export tariffs to sell to China at lower prices—this was supposed to be our sales window. That’s why U.S. soybean prices keep falling, and this will give China even more leverage over us!"
As for Ben Shore’s tweet, it was a criticism of Yellen’s stance on aiding Argentina. He wrote: "We’re busy bailing out Argentina, while China has already stockpiled 20 shiploads of Argentine soybeans. They think you’re naive."
While the exact identity of the text sender cannot be confirmed, the initials "BR" were visible on Yellen’s phone screen—matching those of U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins. The sender also asked Yellen to call back later.
Last week, the Associated Press (AP) photographed U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen checking her phone for messages during the UN General Assembly.
In early September, the defeat of Argentina’s ruling coalition in elections triggered severe volatility in its financial markets, and Trump quickly stated that he would consider offering assistance.
On the 22nd, Yellen said that Argentina is a U.S. ally of systemic importance. If Argentina under the Milei government fails to extricate itself from its current fiscal predicament, the Trump administration will consider "all stabilization options" to support Argentina, including "large-scale and forceful" intervention.
The following day, Yellen elaborated on the support measures for Argentina’s market, planning to provide $20 billion in currency swaps and bond purchases to back Argentina’s economy. The aim is to help the Milei government cope with election pressures and stabilize its financial market.
Taking advantage of the UN General Assembly, Milei and Trump held a bilateral meeting in New York on the 23rd. Trump praised the Argentine president, calling him "a truly outstanding leader" and "a very good friend, fighter, and winner."
At the same time, sources indicated that the U.S. is pressuring Argentina to terminate its currency swap agreement with China, and has made "maintaining distance from China" during the UN General Assembly a condition for providing future financial support.
Ironically, almost as the U.S. government continued to show goodwill to Argentina, the Milei government announced on the 22nd the temporary elimination of export tariffs on soybeans, corn, wheat, and their by-products to boost exports. Argentina’s soybean tariffs were once as high as 26%, and those on soybean oil and soybean meal reached 24.5%; now, they have been reduced to zero, stimulating $7 billion in sales within just two days.
Affected by this, soybean futures prices at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell for the second consecutive week last week, with the most active contract dropping to $10.1 per bushel (one U.S. bushel of soybeans is approximately 27.216 kilograms). Corn and wheat prices also declined.
On the 26th, Reuters quoted traders as saying that during the period when Argentina suspended agricultural export tariffs, a total of 40 shipments of soybeans—scheduled for November-December delivery—were registered for export, with most bound for China. This came just as the U.S. entered its peak soybean export season, and Chinese buyers’ rush to purchase Argentine soybeans delivered a heavy blow to U.S. exports.
Traders stated that during the window when soybean export tariffs were suspended, the registered volume of soybeans for export in November and December reached 2.66 million metric tons—accounting for more than half of the total 5.1 million metric tons of soybeans registered for export across all months of the tax exemption period.
La Nación estimated that this deal caused "billions of dollars" in losses to U.S. agricultural producers.
In fact, this trend has been evident since August. Traders reported that amid risks of a prolonged trade conflict, Chinese companies increased their soybean inventories. China’s soybean imports hit a new high again in August, mainly from Brazil and Argentina, almost completely squeezing out U.S. soybeans.
Customs data shows that from January to August, China’s cumulative soybean imports reached 73.312 million metric tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%. Among this, soybean imports in August stood at 12.279 million metric tons, a slight month-on-month increase of 5.2%, marking the fourth consecutive month of setting a new record high for the same period.
Last year, China imported a total of 105 million metric tons of soybeans, with over 22 million metric tons coming from the U.S. However, traders noted that this season, before Brazil’s new soybean crop hits the market in early 2026, China may rely almost entirely on supplies from South America.
Argentina is the world’s third-largest soybean producer, after Brazil and the U.S. Due to Sino-U.S. trade frictions, China has not purchased a single shipment of soybeans from the U.S. during this year’s autumn harvest season.
As U.S. soybeans struggle with poor sales to China, Argentina has seized the opportunity to take over the market, leaving U.S. farmers in distress.
Falling prices have added significant pressure on farmers in the U.S. Midwest—who form a key voter base for Trump. Farmers in Indiana and Minnesota have warned that government subsidies cannot replace the lost demand from the Chinese market.
Hong Kong-based English-language media South China Morning Post pointed out that this resentment has further heightened tensions between the U.S. agricultural sector and the Trump administration. Affected by this, the American Soybean Association (ASA) has recently stepped up pressure, urging the Trump administration to provide economic support for domestic farmers. The association also accused Trump of delaying aid to the U.S. agricultural sector while readily offering bailouts to Argentina, its Latin American ally.
In a recent article in The New York Times, ASA President Caleb Ragland said: "U.S. soybean prices are falling, harvest is underway, and the headlines farmers are seeing aren’t about the U.S. government reaching a trade deal with China—instead, it’s all about providing $20 billion in economic aid to Argentina."
"It’s really unfortunate that while the U.S. is helping stabilize Argentina’s economy, they’re harming the interests of U.S. farmers and undermining President Trump’s negotiations with China," said Julie Fedorchak, a Republican U.S. Representative from North Dakota, with frustration. "This is a bitter pill to swallow for soybean growers in North Dakota."
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