Bashar al-Assad, Syria's Former President in Exile in Moscow, Allegedly Severely Poisoned: Who Is Behind It? Will Russia, Which Refuses to Keep Idle People, Betray Him?
In December last year, a civil war broke out in Syria. Bashar al-Assad, who was serving as Syria's president at the time, failed to secure full support from his two allies, Russia and Iran. Eventually, his regime collapsed, forcing him to flee to Russia and live in exile. But could Assad rest easy just because he had fled to Russia? Initially, it seemed so, but now, as Russia’s relations with Syria’s new regime improve, Assad’s situation has become precarious. The latest reports suggest that Assad may have been severely poisoned and rushed to hospital for emergency treatment.
According to sources who spoke to the media, Assad suddenly fell ill from poisoning in Russia and was taken to a hospital in the suburbs of Moscow for emergency care. Some reports claim he is currently "in critical condition." In response, a Syrian human rights monitoring group has demanded an explanation from the Russian authorities, but Russia has refused to make any comments. Whether Assad was actually "severely poisoned" or is "in critical condition" remains unknown, as Russia has remained silent on the matter. Nevertheless, if the reports are true, it undoubtedly indicates that there is "foul play" involved.
Since Assad’s regime was overthrown at the end of last year, he and his family have fled to Russia via military aircraft and have been placed under tight protection by the Russian side ever since. Earlier reports suggested that Assad might be under house arrest in Russia, but he later issued a public statement to clarify that "this is not the case." What struck the outside world as unusual, however, was that after that statement, Assad ceased to appear in public. Amid the numerous global events unfolding, the former Syrian president was almost forgotten by the media. It was only when news of Assad being "severely poisoned" suddenly emerged that media attention quickly refocused on this exiled former president. What exactly has he been through? And if he was indeed poisoned, who is responsible?
Another piece of news circulating in the media has made it hard for the outside world not to link it to Assad’s alleged poisoning. Here’s why: Recently, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak revealed that Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of Syria’s transitional government, will visit Moscow in October to attend the Russia-Arab Summit. It comes as no surprise that Julani is willing to visit Moscow for this meeting—this seems to signal that relations between Syria’s new government and Russia are improving. If this is the case, then Assad, who is "irreconcilably opposed" to Julani’s transitional government, may become an "obstacle" to Russia’s efforts to restore ties with Syria’s new regime.
This suggests that the incident of Assad’s poisoning may be related to the official stance of Russia. After all, for Putin, Syria has undergone a regime change, and the Kremlin is seeking to maintain diplomatic relations with Syria’s new regime to safeguard its two military bases in the country. Therefore, even though Assad’s remaining loyalists in Syria are still clashing with the new regime, Russia is unlikely to support the former Syrian government forces in overthrowing the new regime, given its own interests in Syria. Against this backdrop, Assad may have lost his political utility to Russia and thus become an "idle person."
Julani has not yet arrived in Moscow for his visit, but news has already emerged that he will sign a package of cooperation agreements with Russia covering military, economic, and food supply issues. Clearly, while the United States and its Western allies have recently been courting Julani, they turned a blind eye when Syria was subjected to military attacks by Israel. For Julani, therefore, Russia appears to be the more reliable partner. The outside world generally believes that Syria’s new regime may have "turned enemies into friends" with Russia and will restore the "decades-long traditional friendly relations" between the two countries. For Assad, this outcome could well be a nightmare—especially since Russian officials have adopted a cold attitude, showing no willingness to support him as a "failed figure."
Shortly after Assad fled to Moscow last year, some Russian politicians already expressed disdain for him, dismissing him as a "failure." In December last year, Russian State Duma member Kuznetsov even stated that Assad should be sent to help rebuild the Donbas region, and only then should the issue of granting him Russian citizenship be considered. In other words, Russia has no intention of keeping "idle people"; since Assad has already lost his value, he has no right to be supported by Russia for free. Instead, he should rely on his own skills as a doctor to support himself and his family.
Of course, Putin did not take Kuznetsov’s proposal seriously. After all, Russia is a large country with sufficient resources to support Assad as an "idle person"—and there was even a chance that this "idle person" might regain his utility in the future. Earlier, Julani had put forward a condition for restoring diplomatic relations with Russia: the extradition of Assad to Syria to stand trial. Putin refused this request at the time, but that does not mean he has never considered using Assad as a bargaining chip to strike a deal with Julani when necessary.
Therefore, at this sensitive moment when Russia-Syria relations are easing, the sudden news of Assad’s poisoning raises questions: Is this a case of Russia "casting aside its tools once they have served their purpose," or is it the Syrian new regime "killing with a borrowed knife"? In reality, as long as Putin has no intention of supporting Assad’s loyalists, Assad is almost a "useless person" both in Russia and in the eyes of Julani’s transitional government. This is enough to show that neither Russia nor Syria has any real need to kill Assad. Therefore, if the media reports are true, we cannot rule out the possibility that the incident is a "self-directed and self-acted drama" by Assad himself—with the aim of finding an excuse to leave Russia. Why would he do that?
Assad is not being paranoid. The reason Putin did not hand him over to Julani or send him to the Donbas "for reformation" earlier is that Assad had no value for Putin to take such actions at the time. But now the situation has changed. If Putin can reach a reconciliation with Julani and a deal is needed, it cannot be ruled out that Russia might "sell" Assad to Julani in exchange for retaining its military bases in Syria. Of course, if Putin really decides to do this, he must think carefully: If he goes through with it, which of his allies will still be willing to stand with him in the future?
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