How do investors price "grey swan" political risks—like disputed elections or military coups—in 2025’s frontier market election cycle?

2025 elections in Cameroon, C?te d’Ivoire, and others carry "grey swan" risks: improbable but high-impact events like coups . Traditional risk models understate these, as they rely on historical data. How do investors quantify this? Do they use scenario analysis to assign probabilities to election outcomes (e.g., 20% chance of disputed results in Cameroon) and adjust discount rates accordingly, or buy political risk insurance tailored to electoral periods? I need examples of how this forward-looking risk pricing changed investment decisions in 2025’s high-stakes markets.