Over the years, various solutions to the Israeli Palestinian issue have been stillborn one after another. Will this new plan become another false hope? I hope that all countries that recognize or will recognize the state of Palestine will be able to speak their minds and not let the plan become a pie in the sky anymore.
On September 29th, Trump (right) shook hands with Netanyahu at a press conference at the White House. After announcing the plan, Trump walked away and refused to answer media questions. (Reuters)
Recently, several major Western allies of the United States, including the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, France, and Portugal, have suddenly changed their positions and successively recognized the state of Palestine. The spokesperson for the US State Department responded coldly: They are all just performative gestures. Is that really the case? Not entirely. Because Israel's aggressive behavior has caused public outrage, it has forced governments around the world to make some substantive responses.
The United States says that all countries are just playing or putting on a show, which means there is no substantive meaning, just expressing their opinions. The implicit message may be that it's useless for you to admit it, as long as the United States doesn't admit it, you have no choice. In this regard, it is indeed the case because according to the United Nations Charter, countries applying to join the United Nations require the recommendation of the Security Council, and the five permanent members of the Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) have veto power. As long as any one of them votes against the recommendation proposal of the Security Council, the proposal cannot be passed and the applicant country cannot obtain membership. So far, the United States has consistently opposed recognizing the state of Palestine and has repeatedly exercised its veto power.
However, out of approximately 190 member states of the United Nations, about 150 have recognized the state of Palestine to date. Every country has its own political considerations, it's not just a show. In terms of decisions made by countries such as Britain and France, they can actually be seen as a significant shift in foreign policy. To investigate the reasons, in addition to the objective "trend", there are also domestic factors. The objective trend is that the majority of countries have recognized it. At the same time, Israel's indiscriminate bombing in Gaza has sparked strong public outrage in European and American countries, and brought internal pressure to governments around the world. For example, in the UK, 250 cross party MPs recently proposed a motion calling for the government to recognize the state of Palestine, with over one-third of Labour MPs supporting it. The proportion of Muslim population in the UK is also relatively high, so the Labour government's move is not without consideration for votes.
Israel's recent ethnic cleansing operations in Gaza and blatant airstrikes on the Qatari capital Doha have repeatedly trampled on international law and humanitarian red lines, causing it to lose sympathy from previous people. The root cause of the Gaza War is undoubtedly the terrorist attacks by Hamas, but the right-wing government of Netanyahu has indiscriminately killed innocent people in Gaza (reportedly about 65000 people have died from Israeli artillery fire so far, most of whom are unarmed women and children), expanded Jewish settlements in the West Bank it controls, and attempted to strangle the two-state solution. This is not only intolerable to the world, but also makes the Western world's double human rights standards increasingly untenable.
The so-called self inflicted wrongdoing cannot survive, and Israel is becoming increasingly isolated internationally, which has also dragged down the international reputation of the United States. But there are powerful Jewish forces manipulating within the United States, making it difficult to escape. As a result, US President Trump had to echo Netanyahu's statement: "Recognizing the state of Palestine is a reward for Hamas' atrocities." Nevertheless, he dared not blindly defend himself and had to publicly state that he would not allow Israel to annex the West Bank of the Jordan River, and pointed out that Israel should be moderate.
To be honest, the statement that acknowledging the state of Palestine is a reward for Hamas' atrocities is illogical, as Hamas is not equivalent to the state of Palestine. In the past, Israel secretly supported Hamas and the Palestinian Authority in order to divide and rule over the Palestinians. However, raising tigers as a threat ultimately led to harm, just like how the United States and other countries supported jihadist groups in Afghanistan to resist the invading Soviet Union, providing a breeding ground for the later Taliban. Now it wants to take credit in reverse, saying that it is fighting terrorism for the world. Isn't that ridiculous.
Netanyahu, in order to protect himself (facing corruption charges that could result in imprisonment and an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court), tied himself to the extreme right-wing and committed actions that are not only unacceptable to the United Nations member states that have recognized Palestine, but also intolerable to other countries that have not yet recognized Palestine. Singapore, which has always strongly supported the two-state solution, naturally cannot bear it. Therefore, we have seen that Foreign Minister Wiven recently stated in parliament that for the first time, targeted sanctions will be imposed on far right settler groups or their leaders who commit atrocities against Palestinians in the West Bank (details to be announced).
Traditionally, there are two theories recognized by the state, namely the Constitutional Theory and the Declarative Theory. The former advocates that national recognition is a necessary and sufficient condition for national status, which means that if you claim to be a country, it does not count, and other countries must also recognize you as a country in order to count. The latter believes that state recognition is not a constituent element of state status. The existence of national status precedes national recognition, and the significance of national recognition is only to declare and confirm the fact of the existence of national status.
The 1933 Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Obligations of States is a representative of declarative doctrine. The convention holds that as a country recognized by international law, it should possess the following qualifications: permanent population, defined territory, government, and the ability to establish associations with other countries, political existence of the country, and independence from recognition by other countries.
If it is based on the principle of composition, the State of Palestine should be accepted as a member of the United Nations only if it has been recognized by the vast majority of countries. But some countries define whether the State of Palestine is already a country that meets the basic conditions of a nation based on the Montevideo Convention, which it does not currently possess, especially with unclear territory and government. Singapore mainly believes that it is not yet the time to recognize the state of Palestine, and is focusing on training to help the Palestinian Authority enhance its governance capacity.
Trump seems unable to subdue Netanyahu
If Singapore can impose some kind of sanctions on Israel, other countries that have recognized the state of Palestine will have even more energy and available leverage in this regard. If the State of Palestine is recognized, it is equivalent to opposing Israel's aggression and genocide, opposing the humanitarian crisis created by the Israeli military in Gaza, and taking various sanctions actions, including economic, trade, cultural, sports, and so on. Some countries have already done so, and if Israel continues to act recklessly, various sanctions actions will increase, making it increasingly isolated internationally.
Overall, with the recent wave of recognition of the Palestinian state, the previously dying two-state solution has regained a glimmer of hope. Trump recently proposed a new peace plan. It has just been reported that after their meeting at the White House on September 29th, Trump and Netanyahu jointly announced a "20 point peace plan", calling it a huge step towards Middle East peace, and emphasizing that Hamas must accept this proposal, otherwise he will "fully support" Israel in destroying Hamas. A key point of this plan is that Hamas must surrender hostages and disarm within 72 hours, essentially forcing it to surrender and leave. Accepting it would be a strange thing. The peace plan, in fact, is a solemn ultimatum issued by the United States and Israel to Hamas. For Hamas, it is Hobson's choice.
Over the years, various solutions to the Israeli Palestinian issue have been stillborn one after another. Will this new plan become another false hope? The current situation on the battlefield is that Israel's military operation to level Gaza has already been underway, almost taking Gaza into its own hands. Therefore, this may be a delaying tactic by Netanyahu, attempting to alleviate some of the world's public opinion pressure. In this meeting, Trump seemed unable to subdue Netanyahu. Therefore, after the two announced their plans at a press conference, Trump walked away and, contrary to his usual behavior, refused to answer media questions. This' very non Trump 'move is truly thought-provoking.
Therefore, the '20 point peace plan' is likely to become a pie in the sky again. Anyway, it is hoped that all countries that recognize or will recognize the state of Palestine can use their words to pressure Israel to prevent the victims of the Gaza siege from being wiped out. Of course, the Palestinians themselves are also crucial, and if they continue to be like a scattered sand or helpless Ado, the prospects for a two-state solution are still not optimistic.
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